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Future Products: Probability of Rainfall

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Example of the probability of rainfall product for the three hours beginning 15:00 UTC on July 8, 2005, derived from rainfall potential and rainfall rate fields based on SEVIRI data.

The probability of rainfall algorithm generates a gridded probability of at least 1 mm of rainfall during the next 3 hours. The algorithm uses intermediate rainfall rate forecasts from the rainfall potential algorithm as input to a statistical model calibrated against estimates from the rainfall rate algorithm. This algorithm will provide forecasters with guidance as they develop their short term rainfall forecasts, leading to earlier and more accurate river forecasts and flood advisories.